What’s amazing when you look at property price data is the huge differences between regions, but that within those regions, the towns and cities also perform at different rates.

Over time, out of the 30 cities we track, since 2005, property prices have only risen above the average annual 3.8% inflation rate in only seven cities/towns. These include:

• Manchester
• Bristol
• Cambridge
• Oxford
• Brighton and Hove
• London
• Edinburgh

Milton Keynes property prices are on a par with the average annual rate of inflation.

All the remaining towns and cities have seen their average property prices grow at less than inflation – which is not something anyone would realise if they took their understanding of property prices trends from the media.

The following towns and cities price growth ‘on average’ are performing well below inflation:

• Newcastle
• Belfast
• Aberdeen
• Southampton
• Nottingham

Price growth charts according to Land Registry and Hometrack

From a year on year basis, Edinburgh, Manchester and Oxford appear to be performing well historically and also year on year. Meanwhile Brighton and Hove appears to have lost some of its historic steam, along with Cambridge and London.

E.surv commentary
“In December 2023, only 11 of the 111 Unitary Authority areas in England and Wales were recording house price gains over the previous twelve months, which is 8 fewer authorities with price rises over the year than in November 2023.
“The area with the highest annual increase in prices in December 2023 is Gwynedd in Wales, up by 6.4%. In Gwynedd, prices for both detached and semi-detached homes have increased over the last twelve months, with the most significant increase on a weight-adjusted basis being detached properties, up from an average £345k in December 2022 to £370k one year later.

“By way of contrast, the area with the largest fall in prices over the last twelve months was – perhaps ironically given its proximity to Gwynedd – Denbighshire. In Denbighshire, prices have fallen by 16.1% over the year, with the largest fall in average values being detached properties, down from an average £310k in December 2022 to £245k in December 2023. However, it is perhaps likely that this had more to do with the attributes of the individual houses sold in the period, as opposed to a collapse in the housing market.”

Appendix: City/town property indices price tracking

For city/town tracking, we use Land Registry (government data) and Zoopla/Hometrack. The Land Registry data is useful because we can analyse how property prices have changed over time and this helps us to put today’s price information into context.

The Zoopla/Hometrack data is useful as they take into account the change in mix of property transactions during the pandemic to houses away from flats. This has meant the likes of the Land Registry and other indices have over exaggerated price changes year on year.

The post House prices analysis: towns and cities in focus appeared first on The Negotiator.

Their stats on a year on year basis show that Scotland and Northern Ireland, up to November time, were up year on year while England and Wales were slightly down, but nothing like the huge forecasted falls.

England and Wales were slightly down, but nothing like the huge forecasted falls.”

Nationwide’s quarterly mortgaged only sales actually show that Scotland is just up year on year, while Northern Ireland is 4.5% up versus Q4 in 22 – which considering the rises in mortgage rates throughout 2023, is quite an incredible result. Meanwhile, they agree with the Land Registry that prices in England and Wales are slightly down year on year.

On a regional basis, we have data from the Land Registry, Home.co.uk and Halifax monthly while Nationwide monitor this on a quarterly basis.

What’s good about the data is that, bar London and the South, even though the average national prices vary a lot from one indices to another, regional data varies a lot less.

For example, nationally, Rightmove typically has the highest monthly average price: £359,748 while the lowest is Nationwide at £257,656, which is a staggering 39%+ difference!

And if you look at London prices in particular, they also range dramatically between the indices with Rightmove showing the highest average of £664,550 versus the lowest – which is the Land Registry at £505,283, a 31% difference. There is also a big difference in the ‘performance’ of London according to the different indices, with the Halifax and Rightmove showing falls of less than half a per cent, while the Land Registry shows the highest fall of 6%, a significant difference.

Regions showing a positive market are North East and West and Yorkshire and Humber.”

The South East, East and South West showing the highest falls, are likely to be worst affected due to reliance and need for larger mortgages. Regions that are showing a positive market according to Halifax and Home.co.uk are: North East and West and Yorkshire and Humber, whilst Rightmove also records positive price movement for the North West and Yorkshire/Humber region.

However, it’s important to note two things. Firstly, the falls are pretty minute, mostly just a few percent. And secondly, that compared to 2019, which is the best ‘base year’ we have for the market pre the pandemic, that most home owners have seen good price growth during the time they own a property.

What’s more useful though is this chart from Home.co.uk which shows a good picture for any sellers looking to move having bought five years – or more – ago. Even with the rise in mortgage costs over the last 18 months, most regional buyers will have seen good price growth, hopefully enough to remortgage at a reasonable rate with a better Loan to Value and/or in a position where they have gained enough equity to trade up – or indeed release some equity and trade down.

For Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland we monitor:

• Principality Building Society
• Halifax
• Zoopla
• Esurv

Summary from the indices of the Scottish housing market

Halifax

“Scotland and Wales both saw positive growth, +4% on an annual basis to £206,087 and £219,609 respectively.” 

E.surv

No change in Scotland’s house price over last twelve months

“The average house price in Scotland in November 2023 has fallen by a minimal £16, or 0.0%, over the last twelve months, which is 0.5% lower than the rate seen in October, one month earlier. This is the lowest annual growth rate since May 2016, some seven and a half years earlier. 

“14 of the 32 local authorities in Scotland were reporting a positive movement in prices over the previous twelve months, compared with 17 in October. However, as with the previous month, Edinburgh had the largest fall in prices over the year when measured on a weight-adjusted basis, which on its own counterbalanced some 27% of the positive movement in values in the 14 areas with price gains.

“In November, on the mainland, East Renfrewshire had the highest increase in its annual rate of price growth, at 12.0%. In East Renfrewshire, all property types have seen an increase in values over the last twelve months, but particularly semi-detached homes, with average prices rising from £300k in November 2022 to £350k twelve months later. Staying on the mainland, Midlothian has the second-highest annual growth rate at 10.7%. Again, similar to East Renfrewshire, all property types have seen an increase in their average prices, but in Midlothian it is terraced properties that have had the most significant increase, up from an average £205k in November 2022 to £235k one year later.

The largest percentage fall in prices over the last twelve months was Dumfries and Galloway.”

“At the other end of the scale, the area on the mainland with the largest percentage fall in prices over the last twelve months was Dumfries and Galloway, at -5.4%. In Dumfries and Galloway, all property types saw prices fall over the year, with the largest fall on a weight-adjusted basis being terraced homes, down from an average £140k in November 2022 to £125k one year later.”

Summary from the indices of the Welsh housing market

Principality Building Society

Average house price in Wales falls for fourth consecutive quarter

“There have now been four consecutive quarters of price falls since average prices peaked in Wales at just over £249,000 at the end of 2022. The price of homes fell by more than £5,000 in the fourth quarter of 2023 to a little over £234,000. This is 6% or £15,000 below their recent peak, but still 25% stronger than five years ago.

 “Nevertheless, it is the weakest period for the Welsh housing market since the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis in 2009. The 6% year-on-year decline is relatively modest in nominal terms, given some rather more gloomy forecasts, but of course it is a more significant adjustment in real terms after adjusting for inflationary pressures.

“The 2.2% decline in prices recorded in the quarter is the largest drop in the period December 2020 to December 2023, but with the jobs market appearing resilient and expectations of Bank of England interest rate cuts during 2024, we are now perhaps moving towards a more positive outlook. Certainly, there are already significant cuts in mortgage rates.”

 Summary from the indices of the Northern Ireland housing market

Halifax

“Northern Ireland recorded the strongest growth across all the nations or regions within the UK – house prices here increased by +5.3% on an annual basis. Properties in Northern Ireland now cost on average £195,760, which is £9,761 higher than the same time in January 2023.”

Zoopla 

“Northern Ireland is an outlier with house prices up 3.2% over 2023.”

Commentary on the regional performance by indices

Home.co.uk

“The ‘new normal’ post-COVID continues to favour the northern English regions, Wales and Scotland in terms of

price growth. This month’s data shows that the former growth leader, the North East, has been pipped to the top spot by the North West. It is remarkable that these regions, despite all the challenges since late 2022, have managed to retain a state of overall growth. This is clear testament to the considerable demand driven vigour in these markets.

“Meanwhile, it is the East Midlands, South West, East and London that have borne the brunt of the price corrections.

The East of England is the current laggard with a fall of 2.0% since January 2023. Should these regions recover their losses and return to growth, the national average figures would almost certainly return to real growth.”

Halifax

“North West (+3.2%), Yorkshire and Humber (+2.8%), North East (+2.0%) and East Midlands (0.5%) also recorded house price increases over the last year.

“The South East fell the most last month when compared to other UK regions, with homes selling for an average £379,220 (-2.3%), a drop of £8,866.

“London retains the top spot for the highest average house price across all the regions, at £529,528, albeit prices

in the capital have declined by -0.4% on an annual basis.”

E.surv

“The largest upward change in rates took place in the North East, up by +0.4% on the previous month, making it the only region to have a positive annual rate of growth, at +0.2%. The largest downward movement in rates occurred in the South East, where prices fell by an additional -0.8%, resulting in a decline of -5.7% on an annual basis.

“The three regions with an overall positive change in growth rates were the North East, Greater London and the South West. The seven areas where prices deteriorated further were, in ranked order (smallest to largest), the East Midlands, Wales, Yorkshire and the Humber, the North West, the West Midlands, the East of England and the South East.”

 Zoopla

“On a regional basis, we register the largest price falls in the East of England (-2.5%) and the South West (-2.2%).”

The post HOUSE PRICES UPDATE – analysed by country: England, Scotland, N. Ireland and Wales appeared first on The Negotiator.

It’s great data to put out in a blog to consumers or on instructions to show them that the news headlines about crashes or booms really aren’t much use to them.

In a recent interview with BBC Radio Nottingham, I gave examples of properties that had gone up, down and stayed the same, going right back to the last recession in 2007/8. The individual sold property price data we have access to is really useful to show buyers and sellers that the main people they should talk to to find out what’s happening property wise is: their local agent.

Property price and market indices headlines

Rightmove

Tentatively promising new year start as buyer and seller activity jump

“Average new seller asking prices rise by 1.3% month-on-month to £359,748, the biggest December to January increase in prices since 2020, though average prices are still 0.7% lower than at this time last year.”

Home.co.uk

Prices hold firm on rate cut optimism and falling stock

“Asking prices remain unchanged since last month across England and Wales but are down year-on-year by just 0.5% vs. Jan 2023.”

RICS

Outlook for sales market activity continues to improve gradually

“House price declines continue to moderate at the national level, with respondents now anticipating a flat trend over the year ahead.”

Nationwide

House prices begin 2024 on a more upbeat note
“UK house prices rose by 0.7% in January, after taking account of seasonal effects. This resulted in an improvement in the annual rate of house price growth from -1.8% in December to -0.2% in January, the strongest outturn since January 2023.”

 Halifax

Positive start to 2024 for UK house prices
“Average house prices rose by +1.3% in January, the fourth monthly rise in a row.”

E.surv

Annual prices still falling in January

“House prices in England and Wales saw a slight increase this month, rising by £620 (0.2%) to reach a level last seen in February 2022. This marks only the second time in the past 15 months that prices have grown by more than 0.1%.”

Zoopla

“Our UK house price index recorded annual price falls of -0.8% in December 2023, up from a -1.4% low in October 2023.”

In the meantime, the best information and analysis from this month’s property indices is that demand, instructions and indeed sales agreed appear to be better than they were versus last year, which is a great start to 2024.

And, hopefully this should continue with lenders competing mortgage rates down to sub 5%, although Zoopla’s conclusion is that it’s “Important not to over-interpret the positive start to the year – there is some upside for sales volumes, but we remain in a buyers’ market.”

Rightmove

• The number of new properties coming onto the market for sale is 15% higher than in the same period last year.
• Buyer demand in the first week of 2024 is also 5% higher than in the same period last year. However, competitive pricing from sellers is still vital, with the number of new properties coming to market outpacing the rise in demand.
• The number of sales agreed is 20% higher than during the first week of last year, indicating a strong return of buyer confidence when compared with the unsettled post-mini-Budget period a year ago.
• The average 5-year mortgage rate is now 4.86%, compared to 6.11% at the July 2023 peak. While there may be more surprises to come, early indicators suggest a more stable year for the mortgage market after its volatility from September 2022 onwards.

Nationwide

• UK house prices rose 0.7% month on month in January.
• There have been some encouraging signs for potential buyers recently with mortgage rates continuing to trend down.

“If average mortgage rates were to trend down to 4%, this would ease the mortgage payments burden to 34% of take-home pay (assuming house prices and earnings are unchanged). However, other things equal, mortgage rates of 3% (still well above the lows seen in the wake of the pandemic) would be needed to bring this measure of affordability back towards its long run average.”

Halifax

• The average house price in January was £291,029, up +1.3% or, in cash terms, £3,924 compared to December 2023.
• This is the fourth consecutive month that house prices have risen and, as a result, the pace of annual growth is now +2.5%, the highest rate since January last year.
• Northern Ireland recorded the strongest growth across all the nations or regions within the UK.
• South East England continues to see most downward pressure on house prices.

Home.co.uk

• The total sales stock count for England and Wales has fallen again. The current total of unsold property is 423,827, around 15,000 less than last month and typical for the time of year.
• The number of new instructions entering the market in December 2023 was only 3% more than during December 2022. This is a remarkably small increase given the market chaos caused by the doomed Truss-Kwarteng mini-budget, which led to a shock drop in prices of 2.4% in just one month.
• The Typical Time on Market for unsold property in England and Wales rose by twelve days during December, again in line with seasonal expectations. The current median is 112 days; in pre-COVID January 2020, the same measure was 120 days.

E.surv

• Monthly prices are now showing a small increase.
• North East continues as the only region with price gains over the year.
• Transactions remain at lowest levels of last seventeen years.

Zoopla

• Demand up 12% year-on-year, led by London and East of England.
• Sales agreed up 13% year on year – sales up across all regions.
• Available homes for sale over 20% higher than a year ago.
• A fifth of sellers having to accept more than 10% below the asking price to secure a sale, closer to 1 in 4 across southern England.

The post Latest house price indices analysis appeared first on The Negotiator.

Agents can tap into a vast bank of data that can be filtered down to ultra-local – even individual property – levels but many are guilty of only waving a few pie charts under the nose of a potential client at the end of a valuation. It’s such a waste of the valuable insights available.

So why is now the time to focus on local property data and how we use it? While a degree of optimism is floating around the sales market, there were some figures published in January that pointed to persistent challenges.

Instruction numbers in focus

When serial number cruncher Christopher Watkins analysed TwentyEA data to discover 60% of agents were surviving on less than four listings a month, ripples of discomfort were felt in the industry. His stat was backed up by figures from Propertymark that showed new instructions before the New Year were in ‘freefall’ – nine per member branch in October, dropping to six in November and five in December.

Seasonal variations, perhaps, but agents need to win instructions. The temptation, however, is appealing to the masses by targeting every property possible – especially after a lean period. This is something Katy Billany at TwentyEA feels hesitant about.

Target to reduce time wasters

“It has never been more important to have the right data to underpin business strategies and marketing campaigns,” says Katy. She advises caution when taking a blanket approach to canvassing. “Agents should avoid taking on properties that will cost misplaced time and money to market – ones that may languish on their books without a sale. Data is there to understand local marketplaces so agents are generating the right instructions.”

Katy adds that a common mistake is to only target within what an agent views as their sweet spot. “For example, some agents will only market to properties above a certain value, or within a particular Council Tax band, but if demand on their patch is strong for cheaper two-bedroom terraces, they may be missing out on potential instructions that will sell with ease.”

Data generated by TwentyEA tells agents how long different types of properties in a set area are taking to sell and what percentage of those sales are falling through. “We know flats are currently taking three and a half months to sell in the North West, while semi-detached properties are selling in half the time,” says Katy. “It’s these valuable localised snapshots that allow agents to target the best returning leads, rather than waste resources on duds.”

Keeping conversations relevant

Rory Black, Dataloft

Rory Black knows Dataloft’s insights can incentivise when you really have to warm a client up – like now when there’s an air of caution: “It can take a long time for people to make decisions, even after making

contact or having a valuation. That’s why the nurture phase is so crucial.”

For Rory, the ‘drip drip’ of local data can be useful. “We often talk about the importance of creating ‘life-long conversations’ with clients but to keep in touch, you need something interesting to talk about,” he comments.

What could be more relevant to someone interested in selling or letting than sharing information about their local market?”

“What could be more relevant to someone interested in selling or letting than sharing information about their local market? This is where crafted property data becomes a valuable marketing commodity.”

Dataloft’s infographics and easily-digested reports work well when posted to the channels home movers love to explore, like social media, as well as making great print outs, downloadable PDFs and emailable files.

But for all the breakdown of sales volumes and postcode insights, sometimes an up-to-date property valuation is the catalyst for a sale. People love knowing how much their home is worth – especially if it’s more than they paid or better still, more than their neighbour’s.

What’s it worth?

“There’s almost nothing more valuable than letting potential clients know how the price of their property is faring and what other properties like theirs have sold for. We all fall for the FOMO effect,” adds Rory.

“Sending out regular local market reports ensures agents stay on the radar of future customers. Which agent will they come to when they next need something or are ready to move? The one they haven’t heard from? Or the one that sends valuable content derived from local property data?”

Local data is also worth its weight in gold when it comes to on-market prospecting. It will be especially game-changing for those who are charting Rightmove’s current average UK asking price. In January, the portal’s House Price Index revealed average new seller asking prices rose by 1.3% (+£4,571) month-on-month, despite repeated calls for realistic expectations among sellers.

Tracking the triggers

Overpriced properties could be a real trigger for sellers swapping agents, says Heather Staff at Spectre. “Looking at January 2024, the market has already experienced the highest number of property price reductions when comparing the same month over the past three years,” notes heather. “Furthermore, 28% of property listings that underwent a price reduction in 2023 reduced their price more than once – and a number of these listings are still on the market.”

Heather Staff, Street.co.uk

Heather advises agents to pay particular attention to reduced competitor stock in their area, and implement a strong prospecting strategy for targeting, nurturing and winning these second instructions over the following weeks and months.

Data also shows properties are taking longer to sell. Spectre’s analysis revealed that properties sold in January 2024 were on the market for an average of 12% longer compared to last year, and a staggering 50% longer than in January 2022.

Spectre makes this analysis available to agents at a local level, with property data sets filtered according to price reductions and time-on-market – both indicators that a vendor may look to swap agents soon.

It’s all made possible thanks to advanced AI algorithms. “AI can efficiently collect, analyse, process and refine vast amounts of data, which would be otherwise near impossible if done manually,” adds Heather.

AI can efficiently collect, analyse, process and refine vast amounts of data, which would be otherwise near impossible if done manually.”

Tools like Spectre AI can also predict the properties most likely to come to market as new or relisted instructions – those that have fallen through or have been withdrawn recently, for instance – allowing agents to focus on the most likely-to-convert opportunities.

Think of highly-targeted local property data as adding some precise science to your sales strategy. It’ll give you laser focus before, during and after every instruction, with insights that far outperform a basic property valuation.

The post Are you a property data waster? appeared first on The Negotiator.

STATS: (Farnham office) Average time on sale: 8 Weeks Average time on rent: 8 weeks. Average sale price: £555,000 Average rental price: £1560pcm

HILTON KING AND LOCKE ESTATE AGENCY
Ciara Evans, Senior Negotiator

In South Bucks and Berkshire, house price growth has slowed in October by around 0.60%, but still remains in positive territory for the year to date. Currently the average sales price for our Farnham Common office is around £555,000, with the average time a property spends on the market remaining unchanged at between four and eight weeks.

While we were expecting transactions to be down this month, we have seen a sudden turn for the better, which we believe is most likely due to banks reducing interest rates and a slight resurgence of confidence in the market. As a result, we have seen properties that were seeing limited interest, now attracting views, and going under offer. The uptick has resulted in our Farnham Common office increasing the number of sales agreed by some 175% in the past month.

Despite a slight uptick in transactions, it is predicted that overall activity is likely to remain fairly steady going into 2024. The fact remains that with the increase in cost of living and consecutive interest hikes we have experienced over the past while, for many people affordability is stretched. That said, both first-time buyers and downsizers markets have held up relatively well. The allure of purchasing a first home remains strong, especially as rental prices increase.

Demand exceeds supply

Speaking of the lettings market, it is interesting to note that on average we have seen the time it takes to find a tenant decrease significantly. Our average rental price is around £1,560pcm but on the rise, with the demand for rental properties coming to the market exceeding current supply.

At Hilton King and Locke, we specialise in the sale and rent of residential properties in South Buckinghamshire and Berkshire. Leveraging our local expertise, we navigate the current market challenges with our ample marketing skills and offer tailored solutions to meet the demands of our clients. Our strategies focus on showcasing properties effectively, extensive, and personalised customer service and much more.

Featured property: Christmas Lane, Farnham Common – £1,295,000.

NORTH SOMERSET

STATS: (Across three offices) Average time a property is on sale: 5 weeks Number of transactions (or under offer) in last 4 weeks: 7 Average length of time between sale agreed and key handover: 15 weeks

PARKER’S ESTATE AGENTS
Andrew Simmonds, Director

A casual observer might be fooled into thinking there are a lot of homes on the market in Backwell, North Somerset with boards appearing all over the village. In fact, they read “Save Our Village” or “Save our fields” and are the physical signs of the conflict between those living in a well-connected village and the desires of developers. Because it has a mainline railway station with trains to London and good road, cycle and bus links into Bristol homes in the village fetch a premium. More and more of the older housing with good sized gardens and views of the countryside are tipping into the £1 million+ price bracket.

Planning applications

The attractive location has led to a number of planning applications from developers who want to add to the housing stock creating new homes on farmland. It remains to be seen whether the local authority and developers get the balance right and maintain the elements that make living in semi-rural areas such as North Somerset attractive while meeting the needs for housing from a growing population. Those already living in the area say infrastructure such as school places and doctor’s surgeries and road congestion will come under pressure if too many of the homes get the go-ahead.

At the moment there is no sign that house prices will be affected negatively by any of the new build plans. It is the biggest challenge facing the area in the next 12 months and is fuelled by locals needing homes at the same time as those from Bristol and London also looking to North Somerset as the ideal spot to put down roots. Small North Somerset towns, such as Nailsea, Clevedon and Portishead have seen a good deal of new build in the last decade and now it is the villages dotted between them that is attracting the eye of those wanting to build new.

Featured Property: 72b Church Lane, Backwell – £1,170,000.

SALISBURY

STATS: Prices down by: around 5% 95% of sales are: under £400,000 Level of sales collapsing increased from 10% to approximately 30%

WHITES
Tony Williams, Sales Director

What an interesting world we live in! At Whites we handle sales between £100,000 and £1 million and cover an area of 10 miles radius in all directions from Salisbury. Our normal sales ratio is 30% in villages to 70% in the city. Our ratio on pricing would normally be 30% of sales above £400,000 with 70% below. So, are we busy? The answer is yes but only in certain areas. Our sales ratio today now shows that 95% of our sales are under £400,000. If we go back over the year the number of sales per month is remarkably consistent which shows that activity at the lower end of the market has actually grown, whilst the village and larger enquiries have slowed down. We still get a lot of enquiries on properties needing work with large gardens.

Although instructions have slowed down, we are already lining up properties to launch in the new year. Have prices dropped? Yes, we think by about 5% but then of course they went up by 15-20% during the pandemic so does it matter?

Conveyancing lethargy

We have had to take on another member of staff to chase the chains due to the terrible lethargy within the conveyancing world. The old adage that you can only move at the pace of the slowest common denominator has never been more apt. Exchanges, which should go through within two months are now commonly taking three months, if not more. Perhaps it is not the market that is challenging, as there are enough buyers, but rather professionals that surround it making it more difficult than it needs to be. This can range from conveyancers who are uncontactable and surveyors who point out all the areas that problems might exist in with no proof whatsoever, to lenders who give an agreement in principle but change their minds when the buyer has found a property. And I hate to say it, agents who don’t ask the right questions to find out the correct situation. There are also councils who can’t get a search out quickly, ours take three weeks in Salisbury and are still done by hand.

But it’s not all bad news is it. Mortgage rates are dropping, inflation is under control, still too many buyers for too few properties, it is only a matter of time before the market starts rising again. Let’s just forget about the election shall we.

Featured property: Salisbury – sold for guide of £1,000,000.

The post Regional report appeared first on The Negotiator.

In cooler markets though, things get very tricky very quickly for agents and indeed anyone working for buyers and sellers. A loss of an average of 17% of sales – and for some areas far more – is hard to deal with.

Buying a home is still a good idea!

When I put myself in the buyer’s world, most of this year I’ve been bombarded with bad news about buying a home, mostly around mortgages. To be fair to the media, they have definitely moved away from the ‘Armageddon’ forecasts of price falls we used to see in the past during times like these, mainly because this rhetoric has typically been wrong for some years now, but also because better data is provided which is giving journalists an improved understanding of the market.

Kate Faulkner

So if I was a first-time buyer or a second stepper, I’d be pretty sure moving home, on top of a cost of living crisis, would be the last thing on my list of to-dos.

However, data from Zoopla tells us that one in two buyers have cash or mortgages with less than 50% Loan to Value.

We also know that first time buyers who we thought would collapse this year, haven’t, or at least hadn’t until base rates rose above 5%. We also know from Nationwide and other indices that buyers have continued to purchase, even with higher mortgage rates, partly by looking at “smaller, less expensive properties” and as such, property types such as flats have sold quite well versus other types.

So there are still buyers out there and there would probably be more of them if we can find ways of explaining why it can be a good time to buy. For example, buying currently, for those that afford to, can be a much less stressful process and indeed mean they get a property for a decent price, rather than the frothy prices we have seen over the last few months.

Those that are buying under £250,000 also don’t have to worry about paying SDLT in England or N. Ireland until the end of March 2025. This won’t necessarily save buyers much, but there is an emotion attached to not having to pay any Stamp Duty at all and this could help bring forward some purchases.

For me, surviving another year of low transactions is all about understanding who can buy locally and what it is they want.

Bungalows are back

Some interesting data from Chris Watkin and TwentyEA shows that the type of property most likely to sell is a Bungalow – which has a 66% chance of selling, likely to be to a cash buyer, followed by houses at just under 60% and although flats are doing better than they have in the last few years, the chance they will sell is just under 55%.

Understanding which type of buyers are active, what price brackets are the most popular, along with which property type can help to make sure you secure not just any instruction, but an instruction that is most likely to sell, is crucial to surviving another slow year. Saying no to properties with poor buyer demand, or to sellers that don’t price realistically or aren’t engaged enough in the process isn’t easy, but it could be a good way to ensure the sales you take on are profitable.

Finally, there is a massive opportunity for the best agents to really separate themselves from others and that is to work with local media and buyers and sellers to explain the new Material Information required.

This needn’t involve a lot of work as NTSELAT have produced some great consumer guides and sending these, with your thoughts, could lead to a superb piece in the local media which can help promote you and your company for free.

And finally, we have suggestions in the Discussion Paper from the Home Buying and Selling Group to reduce fall throughs and the time it takes to buy and sell. These include instructing a legal company from day one of marketing, or before, making sure the seller is ‘ready’ as soon as an offer comes in; providing the material information and other PIQs to buyers so they have a better idea of what they are buying and then sending this to legal companies and/or surveyors along with the memorandum of sale and finally making sure everyone is ready to move by 1pm on the day of completion.

2024 will be another tough year for the industry, but it could also be one of the best years for working out what instructions are profitable, how to reduce fall throughs after the offer stage and the time it takes to sell a property. Focusing on these things could have the biggest positive impact on running a property business not just next year, but in the future.

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House price headlines

Rightmove
Better-than-predicted year, as sellers price more competitively.
“Average new seller asking prices drop by 1.7% (-£6,088) this month to £362,143, as Christmas approaches and sellers continue to adopt more pricing realism to attract a buyer.”

Home.co.uk
Stock levels and prices in seasonal decline.
“Asking prices across England and Wales dropped by 0.6% during October, making the year-on-year fall in asking prices just -1.6%.”

RICS
Sales market remains subdued albeit most indicators turn slightly less downbeat over the month.
“National house prices continue to fall, although the pace of decline appears to be levelling off.”

Nationwide
House price recovery continued in November.
“UK house prices rose by 0.2% in November, after taking account of seasonal effects. This was the third successive monthly increase and resulted in an improvement in the annual rate of house price growth from -3.3% in October, to -2.0%. While this remains weak, it is the strongest outturn for nine months.”

Better-than-predicted year, as sellers price more competitively.

Halifax
UK house prices rise for the second month in a row.
“Average house prices rose by +0.5% in November, following a rise of +1.2% in October. Property prices dropped by -1.0% on an annual basis (vs -3.1% last month).”

E.surv
November house prices continue to fall.
“Cash and mortgage data show average prices decline by an annual -4.6%.”

Zoopla
Price falls extend across country, but declines remain modest.
“UK house price inflation slows to -1.2%, down from 8.2% a year ago.”

Summary of key statistics

Rightmove

• Sales agreed are now 10% below 2019’s more normal market level, improving from 15% below last month.
• The pandemic-driven stock shortage is over, with available properties for sale now just 1% behind 2019.
• The number of sales being agreed for studio, one and two-bed properties is just 7% lower than 2019’s level, compared to four-bed detached houses and all five-bed plus properties, where agreed sales are 14% behind 2019.

Nationwide

• House prices down by 2% compared with last year.
• In mid-August, investors had expected the Bank of England to raise rates to a peak of around 6% and lower them only modestly (to c.4%) over the next five years. By the end of November, this had shifted to a view that rates have now peaked (at 5.25%) and that they will be lowered to around 3.5% in the years ahead.
• The number of mortgage approvals for house purchases has been running at c.30% below pre-pandemic levels.
• A rapid rebound still appears unlikely. Cost-of-living pressures are easing, with the rate of inflation now running below the rate of average wage growth, but consumer confidence remains weak, and surveyors continue to report subdued levels of new buyer enquiries.

Halifax

• Property prices dropped by -1.0% on an annual basis (vs -3.1% last month).
• South East England continues to see most downward pressure on house prices.
• The resilience seen in house prices during 2023 continues to be underpinned by a shortage of properties available, rather than any significant strengthening of buyer demand.
• The economic conditions remain uncertain, making it hard to assess the extent to which market activity will be maintained. Other pressures – like inflation, the broader cost of living, overall employment rates and affordability – mean we expect to see downward pressure on house prices into next year. Latest Bank of England figures show the number of mortgages approved to finance house purchases increased in October 2023, by 8.5% to 47,383. Year-onyear the October figure was 17.1% below October 2022. (Source: Bank of England, seasonally-adjusted figures)

Home.co.uk

• In line with seasonal expectations, the total sales stock count for England and Wales has dropped significantly since the October reading.
• The current total of unsold property is 468,220, around 5,000 lower than last month.
• The supply rate of new instructions entering the market is remarkably restrained overall: down 3% year-on-year and down 8% vs. October 2018. The largest increase at the regional level was observed in the North East (+7%), while the largest year-on-year fall in supply was in Greater London (-8%).
• The Typical Time on Market for unsold property in England and Wales increased by three days during October in line with seasonal expectations. The current median is 93 days; in pre-COVID October 2019, the same measure was 101 days.
• The mix-adjusted average asking price for England and Wales is currently down 1.5% since November 2022.

Zoopla

• UK house price inflation slows to -1.2%, down from 8.2% a year ago.
• Homes for sale touches a 6-year high boosting choice and reenforcing the buyer’s market and downward pressure on prices.
• Sellers accepting 5.5% off the asking price to agree sales, an average discount of £18,000 – the largest gap for over 5 years.
• Discounts to asking prices for agreed sales are 6.1% in London and the South East (£25,000) and 4.8% (or £11,000) for rest of UK.
• For 3 and 4+ bed houses supply has rebounded the most
• While there has been a modest rebound over the autumn, demand remains 13% lower than 2019. Demand is also 10% higher than last year when the fallout from the mini budget drove a rapid decline in buyer interest.
• New sales are still being agreed, tracking 15% higher than a year ago and 5% higher than 2019 levels.
• The larger price falls are concentrated across southern England, especially in markets that registered strong demand and fast price.

Regional house prices

Kate says: Currently, the price indices are reporting that either the East of England or the South East are the worst performing markets, followed by London.

Kate Faulkner

However, this sounds much worse than the ‘reality’ which is that we still aren’t seeing any of the ‘Armageddon’ price falls some predicted and prices are, a few percent to 6% down according to Nationwide and Halifax. They tend to see higher falls as they only monitor properties bought with a mortgage, rather than cash, so miss out on 30%+ of the market.

The reality is that prices have done extremely well since the pandemic and most home owners could have coped with 10% falls, so not only has the market some ability to fall more, but people can cope too. The bigger threat of course is mortgage rate rises, but even these seem to have peaked so far – as long as we don’t get any more shocks. What is being missed by much of the media though is that London has not performed as well as the rest of the market and there is little mention that currently, even though prices are high versus the rest of the country, prices are actually quite good value for money:

“While London house prices are high in absolute terms, they have failed to keep pace with the rest of the UK over the last six years. The average value of a London home is just 8% higher than seven years ago, in nominal terms, whereas UK house prices are 28% higher.”

Commentary on towns and cities

Kate says: Overall, out of 30 cities, since 2005, property prices have risen above the average 3.8% inflation in 11 cities/towns, including Leicester, Bristol and Edinburgh, remained the same as inflation in two cities/towns – Sheffield and Norwich, with price growth staying below inflation for the remaining towns and cities. What this shows is that in real terms, especially for those who own outright, their property isn’t necessarily delivering from an investment perspective.

Demand and supply

Kate says: Despite much of the media focusing on property prices, what’s more important is the data we receive on transactions. Typically, when demand falls and supply rises, this can have quite a dramatic impact on property prices. In the last two recessions, prices fell by around 20%, but, although we haven’t seen a full-blown recession this year, prices do seem to be divorcing from dramatic drops in demand. This is partly because supply has been so tight, but also because people have received better pay rises over the last few years than in the past, the tighter mortgage rules introduced in 2014 have helped to ensure people can not only afford to buy in a low mortgage rate market, but also in a more ‘normal rate’ market of around 5%.

As such, although we will never get rid of ‘boom and bust’ with property prices, they certainly seem to be rising less in the good times and falling less in the bad times.

There is no doubt though that with one million sales this year and the same forecast for 2024, transactions have hit the industry harder than affordability issues have hit buyers and sellers. What this means though is the industry needs to be super careful at which properties they agree to sell – and from which sellers. Those who aren’t being realistic on price and those who don’t help and support the agent to collate the new material information required are going to cost rather than make agents money. Although some may worry about the impact of refusing properties, it may actually help boost business over time as telling someone ‘no’ can be quite powerful, and in our market, will help you stand out.

HMRC

“Provisional figures for October 2023 show a fall in residential transactions, continuing the decrease observed in September. Seasonally adjusted transactions fell by 3% in October 2023 relative to September 2023 and non-seasonally adjusted figures are down 17% relative to October 2022 and down by 2% compared to September 2023.”

Propertymark

“The number of new homes placed for sale per member branch has decreased again this month with nine properties available on average per branch in October 2023, compared with 11 in September and 13 in August. We would expect this trend to continue as we enter the festive season, and the market begins to cool. The number of sales agreed HMRC “Provisional figures for October 2023 show a fall in residential transactions, continuing the decrease observed in September. Seasonally adjusted transactions fell by 3% in October 2023 relative to September 2023 and non-seasonally adjusted figures are down 17% relative to October 2022 and down by 2% compared to September 2023.” Propertymark “The number of new homes placed for sale per member branch has decreased again this month with nine properties available on average per branch in October 2023, compared with 11 in September and 13 in August. We would expect this trend to continue as we enter the festive season, and the market begins to cool. The number of sales agreed per member branch has decreased to seven in October 2023 from eight in September, but sits firmly in the range (6-8) that has been prevalent over the last 10 months. Given the emergence of seasonal trends, it is not surprising that the average stock of properties available for sale per member branch decreased from 45 in August to 39 in September and laterally 37 in October 2023.”

Data from Chris Watkin and TwentyEA

Kate says: This data is becoming absolutely essential for any analyst and everyone working in the market that has to forecast their revenue and transactions moving forward.

As you can see from the latest charts, listings are back up to where they were to pre-pandemic levels, and we know from the analysis to date that new listings are helping to drive down prices, taking the ‘froth’ off the market from 2022.

This in turn is helping to boost sales and I for one think this is probably the best time to buy. Partly because November/December are times when people do drop out of the market, so demand is limited, but also because we’ll likely get a bit of bounce in sales by March/ April time next year with the extra stock attracting previously unsure buyers – along with hopefully some more competitive mortgage deals.

Great to see more deals being done too. Although not quite back to pre-pandemic levels, I am getting reports of a flurry of activity from people who were sitting on the fence purchase wise, but have now decided to take the plunge prior to Xmas.

Clearly year on year analysis is pretty useless based on the fact that this time last year we were all suffering from the fall out of the disastrous Liz Truss government.

Zoopla – Record high supply of homes for sale

“A chronic scarcity of homes for sale over the pandemic, particularly for 3+ bed family houses, was a key driver of high house price inflation. This position has fully reversed with the highest number of homes for sale per estate agent for six years.

“The rebound in supply has been recorded in the market for 3 and 4+ bed family homes, a trend across all parts of the UK. Only in Scotland, the North-East and North-West are levels of supply still below their pre pandemic levels.

“The average estate agency branch has 31 homes for sale, compared to a low of just 14 in the middle of the pandemic boom. This is boosting choice amongst would-be buyers and providing them with much greater negotiating power with sellers as they agree pricing.”

Largest discounts to asking price for over 5 years

“The strength of the buyer’s market is evidenced by the fact that the discount to asking price for achieved sales is now at a 5-year high. This also signals evidence of greater realism amongst sellers.

“During the pandemic years buyers had to pay the asking price to secure a property. Over the course of 2023 the gap has widened and sellers have been accepting ever larger. In the first six months of 2023 discounts to the asking price averaged 3.4%. This has now grown to 5.5% for sales over the first half of November – a median discount of £18,000 off the asking price. This is larger than the previous high recorded in 2018, the last time housing demand weakened, and prices came under downward pressure.”

Where is the market going?

Kate says: It’s been a much better year this year than many people predicted. Zoopla wins the prize with their forecasts of 5% price falls and transactions at just over 1mn – although we are likely to come in at 1mn, which is 17% down on the average 1.2mn sales.

However, this shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone as the huge sales of nearly 1.6mn in 2021 and 1.3mn in 2022, plus the issues this year with mortgage rates and the cost of living crisis, it had to hit at some point. And this shouldn’t be causing any issues for the industry as money should have been put by in the ‘good years’ to get through the inevitable slow years. The good businesses in the industry I speak to have all had a bit put aside.

2024 will be as tricky to predict as this one though. There is hope that prices will bounce along the bottom, or fall slightly, but it will be very specific to that property and how keen the seller is to sell and how well the agents do at managing expectations and avoiding the temptation to take on properties at too higher price – especially with the data from Rightmove at The Negotiator Conference showing how damaging overpricing is for both agent and seller.

Transactions

Numbers are likely to be the same as this year and will continue at that rate until we see bank base rates and mortgage rates fall back, hopefully to around 4 to 5%.

What does this mean for the industry and buyers and sellers? Cash will continue to be king for buyers along with sellers that appreciate they need to price keenly to secure offers. For the industry, it will mean taking time to secure as many buyers as they can and then chasing the instructions that they already have demand for. To attract buyers will mean adjusting content to help show them that property is good value and still affordable.

Zoopla

“The current repricing of housing has further to run in 2024. It’s a positive that the number of new sales agreed is holding up, evidence that there are willing buyers and willing sellers ready to agree sales albeit at bigger discounts to asking price. We expect the number of homes for sale to start declining as some sellers take their property off the market with a view to relaunching in the new year. Homeowners that are serious about selling in H1 2024 need to set their asking price realistically to attract demand and agree a sale, especially in light of increased supply.

“Markets expect the Bank of England to start cutting rates around the summer of 2024. If mortgage rates start to fall further, this will support an improvement in demand and sales volumes later in 2024 but prices will remain under modest downward pressure.”

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STATS: Market Share 2023 (The Roseland Peninsula): 43.56% Average House Price 2023 (H Tiddy sold properties): £996,139 for all properties sold and £1,341,996 in St Mawes. Average Pounds Per Square Feet 2023: £672/sq.ft (£8162/sq.m) for all properties sold and £883/sq ft (9507/sq.m) in St Mawes.

H TIDDY
Mark Willson, Director

H Tiddy Independent Estate Agents are based in the exclusive Cornish coastal village of St Mawes. We have been established for over 100 years and we are recognised specialists in a niche market. For over 16 years, we have been proud members of The Guild of Property Professionals with exclusivity to cover The Roseland Peninsula, near Truro, in South Cornwall.

For the first eight months of this year, we successfully sold nearly £21 Million worth of properties in our beautiful coastal Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty. This result is particularly pleasing for us as this exceeds our sales figures in the more buoyant market during the same period last year. From 1st January to 1st September 2022, we sold and completed on just under £19 Million worth of properties with an average house price of £899,784 at £692/sq.ft (7448/sq.m). This equates to an unprecedented 10.71% increase in localised annual average house price growth. So far this year we have sold a broad and varied range of properties in all price categories from a detached cliff top hobbies hut, which fetched considerably more than its £50,000 marketing price after a competitive bidding situation with interest shown and offers from multiple buyers.

Pleasant surprise

Our sales figures so far in 2023 are a pleasant surprise given the state of the economy and increasing interest rates. The Nationwide announced in August and The Halifax in July that Annual House Prices in the UK had declined by 5.3% and 2.4% respectively. Both predict ongoing monthly house price decreases whilst the gap between average wages and mortgage rates plus lending criteria remain relatively broad. Even though we are not complacent enough to believe that our area in Cornwall can be isolated from national housing market conditions, we are delighted that our hard work, local knowledge, and experience has reaped rewards where, we hope, the sun will continue to shine, both metaphorically and literally on The Roseland Peninsula.

Featured property: Crossways, St Mawes, Cornwall – Guide Price £2,975,000. 

ILKLEY, WEST YORKSHIRE

STATS: Time on Market: 99 properties average 127 Days Average Sale Price: £683,000 (last 49 Sales) Under Offer- June 2023: 14 Sales (SSTC)

HARRISON ROBINSON ESTATE AGENTS
Greg Harrison

As voted by the Sunday Times the Yorkshire Spa town Ilkley, took home the prize of best place to live in 2022. Standing firm at the top of the list, with one reviewer writing: “Ilkley continues to dazzle with its enviable shops, schools, stunning scenery, and transport links.

Following the pandemic, many people made the choice to move from cities to the more rural existence that Ilkley and the Wharfe Valley have to offer. Strong train and air links to the Capital are on hand for those who wish to split their time working from home and the office providing access to the best of both worlds.

We are pleased to confirm that strong sales continue, despite changes in the mortgage market, many clients identify property in the Wharfe Valley as a long-term investment and hope they will receive the benefit and enjoyment out of a new home now, with interest rates adjusting in the medium to longer term. Growth in sales is aided by families helping each other join the property ladder with private finances, those looking to move because of a growing family and clients downsizing to release capitol for family property purchases.

Sales are also bolstered by the time-honoured tradition of developing a strong pipeline, customer referrals, trust and great service which is the bedrock of Harrison Robinson’s success in the local marketplace.

Working from homers

We have many clients looking for a home with a spacious dedicated workspace, a garden office, or the opportunity to build one, therefore it certainly looks like working from home is here to stay.

We were honoured to receive an invite to join The Guild of Property Professionals recently. This has certainly helped our reputation and the help and services offered can only be a positive addition.

We at Harrison Robinson bespoke our service to suit each client, to create a stress-free environment from start to finish, whether downsizing or looking for that dream family home, we give our clients the time and space to come to the right decision on a property. Evidence suggests that often people spend less time choosing the right home than they do buying a car. Our team support our clients throughout and much handholding is available to find the right one.

Featured property: The Gables, Hag Farm Road – £3,750,000

NORTHERN IRELAND

STATS: Average House price in East Antrim: £178,025 Hunter Campbell have seen a modest increase in house prices over the course of the year of around 0.5% but with slowing momentum At end Q2, N. I House market had been bucking the trend with total transactions (2879 in total) – higher than in three previous quarters but indications that there is some slowing – await Q3 results (source university of Ulster Quarterly House price index)

HUNTER CAMPBELL ESTATE AGENTS
Nick White, Partner/Director

Although the past few months have been challenging there are certainly reasons to be cautiously optimistic as far as the housing market in East Antrim is concerned. Of course, recent month on month rises in interest rates has had a sobering effect on purchasers but this is on the back of an unexpectedly buoyant two years during Covid, so a bit of softening in the market was not unexpected and truthfully, neither were the interest rate rises.

Now with time to adjust, purchasers are coming to terms with the changes in mortgage rates but more importantly are beginning to see them level off and even a bit of competition for fixed-rate deals amongst lenders – and this coupled with a shortage of stock levels has managed to keep prices relatively static and augurs well for the future.

Demand from villages

All three branches situated in Ballyclare, Carrickfergus and Larne, report the same – we are seeing an increase in demand for properties in the outlying provincial towns and villages. This is in no small measure due to the trend of working from home and this trend is not confined solely to residents of Northern Ireland, as we have seen many purchasers either moving to, or back to, the province where a wide choice of homes in the country on a generous site yet coupled with convenience to all amenities is readily accessible. As to the rental market, on the lettings side of the business there continues to be a shortage of good quality homes and rental values have been rising. With the changes to tax relief available to landlords over recent years coupled with the increase in mortgage interest rates, many landlords have decided to sell up, placing an even greater strain on the private rental market. If, however you are a landlord looking to increase your portfolio, I honestly believe there is no better time. There is still good demand.

Featured property: Blackhead Path, Whitehead, Carrickfergus – offers around £495,000

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